Here’s the best bet you can make in an NBA Game 7


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Good afternoon, I hope you’ve finally shaken off the cobwebs of a late night, watching Stephen Gostkowski miss field goals and Vic Fangio save his timeouts for Week 2, and you’re ready to attack Tuesday night.

The sports are not stopping! In a normal year — remember normal? I don’t! — we’d all be allowed to take a breath following the first weekend of the NFL season, but not this year. We’re not taking any days off, as we’re immediately diving back in with Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals and a Game 7 between the Clippers and Nuggets. Oh, and there’s all those baseball playoff races going on. Last night I chose to watch a White Sox game over Monday Night Football for the first time in a long time because it’s been a while since the White Sox have played meaningful September baseball. It was very stressful, but I welcome sports stress in my life. 

Now that you’re done reading those, I’d like to take a moment to remind Pete Blackburn’s mom that your son has done nothing but cost you money. I’m here to make you money. Maybe you should reconsider which one of us you love more.

🏀 Clippers vs. Nuggets, 9 p.m. | TV: ESPNThe Pick: Under 208.5 (-110): Listen, if it’s late in an NBA playoff series, we’re taking the under. Especially if it’s a Game 7. Did you know that since 2005, the under is a ridiculous 31-19 in Game 7s? That includes the last eight straight. This year alone, we’ve seen it happen in the deciding games in Raptors-Celtics, Rockets-Thunder, and this Nuggets-Jazz series. Those first three games finished with an average of 181 points apiece. In this series alone, the under is 4-0-2. Why change it up now?

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s Projection Model has been destroying the NBA this year, particularly when betting the spread, and it has a pick for this game tonight.

Celtics vs. Heat, 6:30 p.m | TV: ESPNThe Pick: Celtics -1.5 (-110) — Ah, the classic « Rest vs. Rust » narrative will be at stake for the billionth time in history here. The Heat have had a week off, and it’ll be interesting to see how all that time spent watching Netflix in their Disney World hotel rooms has impacted the team. These two met three times during the regular season, with Boston winning and covering twice. While not as drastic as the Game 7 trend, favorites tend to fare better in series openers, as do the teams that haven’t been off for a week, but did get some time off as the Celtics did. So that’s the direction we’re going.

Mets at Phillies, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TVThe Pick: Over 9.5 (-115) — This game’s total is set at 9.5, but this could be a situation where the first team to 10 wins. Rick Porcello starts for the Mets while Jake Arrieta is going for the Phillies. Both have won Cy Youngs during their careers. Neither is the same version of the pitcher they were when they won the award. Instead, they’re two guys who don’t miss many bats.

Royals at Tigers, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TVThe Pick: Tigers (-106) — It’s scary betting on the Tigers, especially when they’re favored. I’m not that worried here, though. Matthew Boyd’s numbers are bad this season, but they’re skewed by a few bad outings against the White Sox and Brewers. Against this Royals team, I suspect he’ll be just fine, and the Tigers offense is slightly more imposing than the Royals.

Indians at Cubs, 8:15 p.m. | TV: MLB.TVThe Pick: Over 8 (-115) — On the surface, this is a stellar pitching matchup between Yu Darvish and Carlos Carrasco, but we’re not interested in the surface here. We’re interested in the air and what’s blowing through it. It’s going to be a windy night at Wrigley, with the winds blowing out to left-center. When that happens at Wrigley, the ball flies.

SportsLine pick of the day: The SportsLine Projection Model is heavily favoring one side of Blue Jays vs. Yankees at 7:05 p.m. ET. SportsLine subscribers can get picks for that game, and for every other MLB game today, here.

Nikola Jokic (FD $10.2K/DK $10K) — Jokic has been a DFS monster in this series. He had a bad performance in Game 1 but has averaged 54.2 FanDuel points per game in the five since. This is where your lineup should begin tonight.

Jerami Grant ($4.9K) — If you’re going to spend up on Jokic, you’ll need to spend down somewhere. I’d go with Grant. He’s exceeded his price point in four of the first six games in this series and will give you the proper return on his price at a minimum.

SportsLine’s team of DFS insiders has you covered for daily fantasy sports. Mike McClure has won almost $2 million playing DFS and is one of the top MLB DFS experts anywhere. Check out his MLB picks here, and be sure to see what he’s picking for NBA DFS here too. Use SportsLine’s all-new DFS Optimizer to get optimal NFL DFS picks from 10,000 simulations.

Every day during the MLB season we’re going to pick a pitcher to attack by taking home run props on several different players from the same team. Tonight we are attacking Baltimore Orioles starter, Thomas Eshelman.

If you followed last night you made money thanks to Freddie Freeman, and there’s no need to change course tonight:

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